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From Business at Leeds 2022 |听Full issue

The biggest challenges facing the world are interconnected. Leeds alumni are out there seeking solutions.

鈥淚 knew there would be uncertainties,鈥� Maggie Grout said of starting her nonprofit business. 鈥淏ut I didn鈥檛 really expect most of the events that have unfolded since we started.鈥澨�

You could forgive Grout (Management, Strat, Entr鈥�21) for not predicting a war, increasing geopolitical conflict, a pandemic, surging inflation and tangled supply chains in 2015, when she first began pursuing Thinking Huts. The nonprofit, which builds 3D-printed schools in developing countries, opened its first school this spring, in Madagascar鈥攁nd as you might expect, it was a learning experience.听

鈥淚 may have been too optimistic in my planning,鈥� she said. 鈥淭he main takeaway for me, as we look to the next schools, is to make sure I鈥檓 giving myself enough room if things don鈥檛 go right, especially on the supply chain and shipping side.鈥�

It鈥檚 a story that resonates with Leeds alumni, who are confronting seismic changes that have been uneven in their impact and hard to predict.

Making up for a late start

Ryan McMunn (Mktg, Mgt鈥�02), owner and CEO of Tricam Industries, said tension between the United States and China forced the company to pivot its production operations.听

鈥淲e got a late start on Southeast Asia,鈥� said McMunn,听whose company designs and sells consumer products like ladders and landscaping equipment. Pre-tariffs and pandemic, all its manufacturing was done in China, 鈥渂ut we opened up听five factories in Southeast Asia, and we鈥檒l probably be doing听more there in the future.鈥澨�

鈥淎nd even if the tariffs are dropped, there鈥檚 too much political turmoil within China,鈥� he added. 鈥淲hen manufacturing comes back there, it won鈥檛 be the same.鈥�

McMunn is hardly the only pessimist about U.S-China relations. Gurumurthi Ravishankar, faculty director of the master鈥檚 in supply chain management at Leeds, said he expects to see more manufacturing move to Southeast Asia, India, Mexico and even the United States鈥斺�渂ut it鈥檚 easier said than done.鈥�

鈥淚t makes for good press to say you鈥檙e moving manufacturing back to the U.S., but it鈥檚 not easy to accomplish,鈥� he said. 鈥淵ou can鈥檛 abandon the investments and partnerships you鈥檝e made around the world, and even when you do make an announcement, you鈥檙e still five or six years away from creating products鈥攏ot to mention a $10 billion or $15 billion investment.鈥�

And as the discussion around global operations expands into the policy arena鈥斺�淧eople who didn鈥檛 know what this was two years ago, now they stop you on the street to tell you about their supply-chain problems,鈥� Ravishankar said鈥攊t鈥檚 attracting attention from professionals who see this is an area ripe for innovation. Among them is Mike Cordano (Bus鈥�87), who called himself 鈥渙bsessed with technology as a catalyst to evolve companies, business, markets鈥攖he world.鈥�

鈥淲e鈥檙e in a period of what I鈥檇 call accelerated evolution,鈥� said Cordano, founder and partner of Prime Impact Capital. 鈥淭he rate and pace of tech-driven change is creating a steeper slope of broader disruption around how people work鈥攁nd the ways they work鈥攚orldwide.鈥澨�

For the past 30 years, globalization was about driving down costs, he said. 鈥淏ut globalization as we knew it is being challenged by the broader geo-political environment in Asia and Europe. Based on those dynamics, we鈥檙e seeing pressure to modify trade relations, potentially leading to some level of decoupling of certain parts of the global economy.鈥�

Chip听away at the problem

As an example, Cordano pointed to the worldwide semiconductor shortage. Federal legislation aimed at domestic manufacturing has generated plenty of chatter, even though it鈥檚 yet to bear fruit.

鈥淢aking semiconductors here isn鈥檛 the lowest cost, most efficient way to do it, but there鈥檚 other concerns in play, from IP control to supply chains and continuing innovation,鈥� he said.听

MORE: Chips Ahoy? Federal Incentives No Guarantee of More U.S.-Made Semiconductors

Anna Fatelnig enrolled in the master鈥檚 program in supply chain management at Leeds because she saw the potential for innovation in the empty shelves of her local supermarket during quarantine.听

鈥淲e need people who can step in and find ways to make the world more agile for the next event鈥攂ecause I don鈥檛 believe this was the last pandemic in my lifetime,鈥� said Fatelnig (MSSCM鈥�22), now a procurement coordinator at F. Schumacher & Co., in New York. 鈥淚t鈥檚 an ever-changing world, and companies have to adapt and change as well.鈥澨�

She said what she most appreciated about her classes听was how relevant the assignments and cases were in a听time of great disruption.听

鈥淓verything we talked about was presented with real examples that didn鈥檛 happen 20 years ago,鈥� she said. 鈥淚t was more like stuff from two weeks ago.鈥澨�

Two weeks, of course, now feels like long-term planning when it comes to real estate investment, said Cyndi Thomas (MBA鈥�01), managing director at RCLCO and a member of the advisory board to the CU Real Estate Center. The consulting and advisory firm, which serves clients around the world, revises its own guidance 鈥減robably every other week鈥� in response to the forces shaping real estate.听

鈥淭raditionally, real estate is viewed as an inflation hedge, because it鈥檚 repriced on a somewhat regular basis,鈥� especially asset classes like apartments, hotels and self-storage facilities with shorter-term leases, she said. 鈥淐urrently, institutional investment activity for assets with longer-term leases, without the ability to increase revenue, is muted because of higher interest rates, resulting in the potential for negative leverage.鈥� The bid-ask spread between sellers and buyers, she said, has widened.

The development side of the industry, meanwhile, has fallen victim to supply shortages, a labor crisis and high operations costs for projects like hotels, apartment communities or senior housing. That鈥檚 created a lot of scrambling so that Thomas can provide the right advice to the institutional investors she works with.听

'We're in unknown territory'

鈥淭he pace of change over the past 90 to 120 days, in terms of what we鈥檙e seeing and how we鈥檙e advising people, has been shocking,鈥� she said in summer, 2022. 鈥淲e鈥檙e in unknown territory.鈥�

It may sound bleak, but Thomas is optimistic about the caliber of young professionals coming up in real estate and business.听

鈥淲hat makes them special is their curiosity, which is so important in an interconnected world,鈥� she said. 鈥淏eing able to connect the dots from understanding what is happening over here, and what that means for my business and my personal life, is the big-picture perspective that the business world is going to need going forward.鈥�

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An Eye to the Future

With all the changes driven by how interconnected the business world is, how can alumni and aspiring leaders manage to stay nimble?听

Mike Cordano says an ability to be adaptive will help set people apart.听

鈥淲hat is effective today, at whatever level you enter the workforce, will change as time and methodology changes,鈥� he said. 鈥淢ore than particular skills, be willing to learn and persevere. Those are the things the environment will dictate will be required. Those attributes will serve you well.鈥澨�

A few other future-focused ideas he shared:听

• Hybrid is here to stay. 鈥淔ully remote work is going to lack some of the creativity and culture building that humans strive for,鈥� he said. But he said he likes the balance hybrid work offers and expects it to remain a long-term trend.
• Global talent war. Related, of course, is听how talent searches can now extend far beyond traditional boundaries. Interestingly, normalization of pay is going along with that, so Silicon Valley salaries may not translate for an engineer working out of state.听
• A.I. at work. Cordano said A.I.鈥檚 impact on work will look like the transition from an agrarian society after the Industrial Revolution. 鈥淚t鈥檚 really going to drive adaptation to what kinds of work people do, and some work is very ripe for automation,鈥� he said. 鈥淏ut at some point, there will be a dislocation in how people earn their living.鈥澨�听

A World Apart

Ryan McMunn knows the challenges of global business better than most: He lived in China for eight years, until 2012, with the goal of truly immersing himself in the language and culture of its people.听

That helped him forge incredible relationships, and is a main reason he supports scholarships that create opportunities to have global experiences, such as studying abroad or pursuing a certificate in international business.

鈥淲hile we do a lot right in our country, there鈥檚 opportunity to take some of the knowledge gained from overseas and bring that back to the U.S.,鈥� he said. 鈥淚 want people to get that experience鈥攖o give students opportunities to see what we鈥檙e missing in the States, and to understand that just because we do something a certain way doesn鈥檛 mean it鈥檚 the best way or the right way.鈥� 听

At Leeds, that starts early. Beyond a goal of giving every student an international experience, the school offers the First-Year Global Experience course, giving freshmen exposure to global topics, case and consulting projects with foreign companies, and a visit to another country.听

Quynh-Thi Nguyen said the First-Year Global Experience was a major selling point in choosing Leeds.听

鈥淓ven coming from a diverse background, studying abroad gave me so much perspective,鈥� said Nguyen (Fin, Econ鈥�25), whose parents immigrated to the United States from Vietnam. This spring, Nguyen visited business and cultural sites in Iceland, which offered a chance to do case studies and meet leaders at companies working in the geothermal energy industry.听

鈥淚t was one thing to learn about geothermal in class, and another thing to talk to businesses and see how much the country relies on it, and how creatively people have used it,鈥� she said.听听