Audio Script
Coloradoβs economy continues to expand in 2016, says CU-ΒιΆΉΣ°ΤΊβs Leeds School
Dec. 7, 2015 Richard Wobbekind
Colorado employment will continue to expand in 2016, adding a variety of jobs in almost every business sector, but at a slower pace than in the previous two years, according to economist Richard Wobbekind of the ΒιΆΉΣ°ΤΊβs Leeds School of Business.
Wobbekindβs announcement is part of the 51st annual Colorado Business Economic Outlook Forum being presented today by the Leeds School of Business.
The comprehensive outlook report for 2016 features forecasts and trends for 13 business sectors prepared by more than 100 key business, government and industry professionals.
Richard Wobbekind (WAH-ba-Kin) comments about the jobs outlook for 2016 and other economic sectors and regions of Colorado.
CUT 1 Overall Job Outlook
βIn summary, we think 2016 will be another very strong year for job growth in Colorado. Weβre forecasting at least 65,000 range or 2.5 or 2.6 percent. And while slightly slower, that will still make us a top ten growth state, perhaps even a top five growth state in the country.β (:18)
CUT 2 Strongest Sectors
βIn terms of job growth for this year the strongest area is going to professional and business services, where a lot of our high-tech lies and our cloud computing, apps, engineering and sciences, the R and D. So that sector continues to be very strong. (:16) But weβre also seeing continued strong growth in the health care sector, a lot of growth there with growth in coverage with the affordable health care plan.β (:27)
CUT 3 Weakest Sectors-Energy
βCertainly the energy sector is being hurt by the low commodity prices. Of course, and you know in Colorado - top six state for natural gas production, top sixth state for oil production - so when you have those commodities so low, that hurts that sector fairly significantly. (:18) And we donβt see that changing in the near future. Very high storage right now of oil in the U.S. Almost record setting levels by what we can see and that doesnβt bode well for commodity prices.β (:32)
CUT 4 Weakest Sectors-Agriculture
βIn addition we see lower ag prices in terms of commodity prices. We see lower beef prices and all of those things donβt bode well for the ag industry. Its profitability will be cut in half from what it was last year.β (:16) So those two sectors, very important sectors for certain areas of the state β really dampen the growth prospects for certain geographic areas of the state and that certainly is an area of concern.β (:30)
CUT 5 Tourism Outlook
631 β Tourism has been looking great. Even though itβs not one of the top three job generators, itβs definitely in the category of generating jobs. I think an additional 9,000. (:10) Itβs coming off a very strong year. The last ten-year run weβve attracted a lot more out of state visitors into the state. And so overall the industry is very healthy. (:23)
CUT 6 Construction Outlook
βSo construction has been on a very positive trend for several years. Weβve had a tremendous amount of infrastructure investments that have gone on. But very importantly, weβve seen increases in both residential and non-residential construction. Our forecast is for strong growth in both of those areas again (:18) We have overall housing unit starts going to over 36,700 next year so we have a big jump in housing starts. Prior to the recession a number of around 40,000, so weβre getting back to a number that getβs to pre-recession levels.β (:35)
CUT 7 Outlook for Denver/ΒιΆΉΣ°ΤΊ Area
βWhen you look at the Front Range, in general, Denver and ΒιΆΉΣ°ΤΊ are key spots in terms of technology employment but also very important in other industries, like the oil and gas industry has a lot of the back office and even front office operations are in downtown Denver. (:20) So Denver has benefited from the growth in technology and the sciences but also the growth in the energy sector and continues to have very strong growth in aerospace, so all of those pieces together have really - the Denver Metroplex, if you will - has been very, very positive. One other piece, the professional and business services - the largest growth area - has a real nexus in the Denver-ΒιΆΉΣ°ΤΊ area.β (:43)
CUT 8 Outlook for Fort Collins Area
βThe further north you go in the state the healthier things are in terms of the economy. And the Fort Collins area, theyβre benefiting a lot from dynamic high-tech economy, professional and business services, also benefits a little bit from the oil and gas growth that had occurred for quite a few years and is still existing in that area but not growing, rapidly, as rapidly.β (:24)
CUT 9 Outlook for Greeley Area
βWeld County is accounting for 86 percent of all the oil production in the state so that area has been in a boom mode, to say the least, and has had very strong housing price appreciation. (:15) And, so, theyβre also just getting caught up in terms of putting enough housing in place. And so they have a lag affect, if you will, from all the boom that still needs to be filled. So they continue to have a strong economy.β (:27)
CUT 10 Outlook for Grand Junction Area
βGrand Junction still is about 6 percent below peak employment, the previous peak, but theyβve done a nice job of diversifying since their downturn.
What they have done since is really bumped up their position as the retail hub for that area. ΜύTheyβve gone out and recruited some manufacturing base to the area. (:24) So they have really done a nice job in the last several years of diversifying their economy with the natural gas not coming back, or at least not in the near term. Theyβve figured out other ways to benefit.β (:35)
CUT 11 Outlook for Durango Area
βSo Durango is doing extremely well. Theyβve added some other health services in that area. They have a natural resource base, which also is largely natural gas. (:12) Tourism, I mentioned earlier, but the summer tourism, in particular, is an important part of their base. So theyβve got some diversity of their economy. And theyβre running at a very low unemployment rate. So they seem to be doing relatively well.β (:26)
CUT 12 Outlook for Pueblo Area
βPueblo had some successes in terms of high-tech attractions - some small processing, solar-collecting plant. One of the largest solar-collecting plants has committed to installation very close to them and being able to use their distribution network. They are continuing to get some nice wins in terms of diversifying their economy.β (:23)
CUT 13 Outlook for Colorado Springs Area
βIt seems to be benefiting from the higher housing prices in Denver and ΒιΆΉΣ°ΤΊ. Certainly considered more affordable along the Front Range. And we have heard - actually talked to people who are moving here who are saying that that is making, thatβs a deciding factor, and it has a lot of the same amenities as ΒιΆΉΣ°ΤΊ or Fort Collins or Denver in terms of beauty and scenic amenities but also has a more affordable price range or price point. (:29) Thereβs also been a lot of housing built for senior care - those types of facilities - and that seems to be filling very rapidly down there. So overall the economy down there looks pretty good.β (:40)
To view the entire economic outlook for Colorado in 2016 including other sectors, such as leisure and hospitality, agriculture, financial activities and government, visit the Business Research Division website. Μύ
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