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Colorado second-quarter business confidence remains positive, says CU-ΒιΆΉΣ°ΤΊ index
April 1, 2015ΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύΜύ Richard Wobbekind
Confidence among Colorado business leaders remains optimistic, increasing slightly going into the second quarter of 2015, according to the Leeds Business Confidence Index released today by the ΒιΆΉΣ°ΤΊβs Leeds School of Business.
The latest reading is a milestone, says CU-ΒιΆΉΣ°ΤΊ economist Richard Wobbekind, because during the past eight quarters confidence has been more stable than ever in the indexβs 11-year history.
CUT 1Μύ βWhatβs really noticeable when you look at the survey over the past three years - now weβre seeing very stable survey results. So business people are not only evaluating the economy and saying, βthings look goodβ, but theyβre very confident quarter after quarter that their beliefs are very solid. (:19) So this really bodes well for not only just the next quarter or two, but, actually, longer term because they have stable expectations right now and very positive expectations right now.β (:29)
He says this also shows that not only do business leaders believe the recession is over but that theyβre seeing real economic growth in Colorado.
CUT 2 βYouβd have to say weβre firmly out of the recession. Theyβre seeing the amount of job growth thatβs going on in the state. Theyβre seeing, apparently from what theyβre saying on their surveys, very strong responses to sales growth, to people demanding more of their product and so thatβs helping reinforce the fact that they believe weβre on a growth trajectory.β (:19)
Wobbekind also says another indication of a healthy Colorado economy is that personal income is finally catching up to the economic growth the state is experiencing.
CUT 3 βThe fact that personal income is rising so significantly year over year is certainly an indication that the overall health in the economy is stronger and very importantly, growing faster than the inflation rate year over year. So weβre starting to see real gains in personal income. (:16) Itβs also, I think, reflective when you look at the hiring number in the index - it was the biggest increase in the survey this quarter. To me theyβre finally saying, βIβm comfortable in hiring people.ββ (:29)
And with the economy growing at a strong pace and the confidence of business leaders up, Wobbekind says wages should also be on the upswing.
CUT 4 βYouβd have to surmise with personal income going up and unemployment rate now at 4.2 percent for the last several months in the state that youβre going to start seeing wage effects. (:10) We know that theyβre occurring in some areas already β construction and in manufacturing, and in high-tech types of jobs - but I have to believe that youβre going to see them in a much broader level at this point.β (:23)
The only area where the confidence index is not strong is in the energy-producing sector. With oil prices remaining low energy companies are not hiring and, in some cases, laying off workers. And even with lower gas prices at the pump helping consumers to save money, Wobbekind says this will negatively impact the state.
CUT 5 βWeβve analyzed the impacts of the energy prices on the economy and we believe Colorado being an energy producing state that the lower gas prices will actually be a net negative in terms of employment effects on the state. (:14) So you have the positives - certainly for tourism and certainly for the consumer - but given the amount of energy we produce in Colorado, the net will be negative.β (:23)
For more information on the Leeds Business Confidence Index go to:Μύ.
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