Zagona, Edie听1听;听Rajagopalan, Balaji听2
1听Research Professor, Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering and Director, Center for Advanced Decision Support for Water and Environmental Systems (CADSWES)
2听Professor, Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering and Fellow, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences
This talk describes ongoing research projects at CADSWES that quantify hydrologic variability and improve water management practices through development and use of model and analysis tools. Reclamation and NOAA sponsor studies that extend understanding of hydrologic variability in the Colorado River Basin through statistical analysis of paleo (tree ring) data. In this the dominant modes of streamflow variability in the basin are related to听 large scale climate forcings at a variety of low frequencies such as ENSO, PDO and AMO; this understanding allows improved seasonal to multi-year forecasting as well as generation of multi-decadal simulated hydrologic traces for improved planning. Patterns of variability that are thus revealed are being used to develop operational strategies that at once adapt to these patterns in responsive and effective ways, and demonstrate ranges of possible management outcomes. Complementary research evaluates the future reliability of environmental flows in the Colorado Basin; sponsored by NGOs, this research utilizes both statistical and modeling techniques to explore tradeoff potentials for environmental benefits. CADSWES decision support tools, including RiverWare庐, funded by Reclamation, US Army Corps of Engineers and Tennessee Valley Authority, allow detailed modeling and analysis of operational policies and are widely used for operations and planning studies as well as hydropower optimization. A new DOE-funded project will use RiverWare to evaluate the 鈥渞ealistic鈥� potential for integration of wind energy with hydropower, considering typical water operations requirements and constraints. These diverse projects are unified by the underlying need for advanced characterization of hydrology and the representation of complex and adaptive operating policies.