Kremen, Amy听1听;听Schipanski, Meagan听2听;听Waskom, Reagan听3
1听Colorado State University
2听Colorado State University
3听Colorado State University
The Ogallala Aquifer, the largest freshwater aquifer in the world, is a main source of agricultural and public water supplies that has sustained economic development in the region for more than 80 yrs. It underlies 450,660 km2 in parts of eight states (Fig. 1c; Thelin and Heimes 1987). The Ogallala Aquifer region (OAR) currently accounts for 30% of total crop and animal production in the U.S and more than 90% of the water pumped from the Ogallala Aquifer is used for irrigated agriculture. Irrigated crop production has a tremendous impact on rural economies in the OAR (Terrell et al. 2002, Leatherman et al. 2004, Guerrero et al. 2010), increasing land production values by more than $12 billion annually (Hornbeck and Keskin 2014).
Agriculture, water, and soil management in the OAR has come full circle over the past century. In the early 20th century, conversion of native grasslands to annual crop production and prolonged drought led to the Dust Bowl of the 1930s (Fig. 1a; Stewart et al. 2010). The adoption of irrigation and soil conservation methods (Fig. 1b) sustained the region鈥檚 economy while reducing soil erosion. However, the Ogallala Aquifer is an exhaustible resource. In the 21st century, reduced well outputs (Fig. 1c) coupled with prolonged drought events have led to dust storms reminiscent of the Dust Bowl (Fig. 1d). Compounding these challenges, are climate change forecasts that predict increases in the duration and intensity of dry spells over much of the OAR over the next 50 years (Fig. 1e; NCA, 2014).
The Ogallala, along with many of the world鈥檚 aquifers, is declining on a path many consider to be unsustainable. Current management, policies and institutions in place in the OAR are not sufficient to adapt to declining groundwater levels (Gold et al. 2013; Morton, 2015). Groundwater policies, for example, vary by state and often lack adequate hydrologic and crop water use data to manage pumping rates (Wohlers et al.2014).
We lack an integration of scientific knowledge, policy scenario evaluation, and the political and social frameworks to extend the life of our shared groundwater resources. Our interdisciplinary team seeks to develop a successful model of integration that leads to wide scale changes in the management of the OAR and informs aquifer management across the world.
Gold, A. J., Parker, D., Waskom, R. M., Dobrowolski, J., O'Neill, M., Groffman, P. M. andMorton, L. W. 2013. Advancing water resource management in agricultural, rural, and urbanizing watersheds: why land-grant universities matter. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation 68(4):337-348.
Guerrero, B. L., Wright, A. P., Hudson, D., Johnson, J. W., & Amosson, S. H. 2010, January. The Economic Value of Irrigation in the Texas Panhandle. In 2010 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2010, Orlando, Florida (No. 56433). Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
Hornbeck, R., and Keskin, P. 2014. The historically evolving impact of the Ogallala Aquifer: Agricultural adaptation to groundwater and drought. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 6(1):190-219.
Leatherman, J.C., Cader, H.A., & Bloomquist, L.E. 2004. When the well runs dry: The value of irrigation to the western Kansas economy. Kansas Policy Review 261(1):7-20.
Melillo, Jerry M., Terese (T.C.) Richmond, and Gary W. Yohe, Eds., 2014: Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, 841 pp. doi:10.7930/J0Z31WJ2.
Morton, L.W. 2015. Achieving Water Security in Agriculture: The Human Factor. Agronomy J 107(4): 1557-1560.
Stewart, B.A., R.L. Baumhardt, and S.R. Evett. 2010. Major advances of soil and water conservation in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. Soil and Water Conservation in the United States. SSSA Special Publication 60. T.M. Zobeck and W.F. Schillinger, editors. SSSA, 677 S. Segoe Rd., Madison, WI 53711, USA.
Terrell, G.L., Johnson, P.N., & Segarra, E. 2002. Ogallala aquifer depletion: economic impact on the Texas high plains. Water Policy 4(1):33-46.
Thelin, G.P. and F.J. Heimes. 1987. Mapping irrigated cropland from Landsat data for determination of water use from the High Plains aquifer in parts of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming: U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1400-C, 38 p.
Wohlers, T., Mason, A., Wood, J., & Schmaltz, E. 2014. Tragedy of the commons meets the anti-commons: water management and conflict on the southern plains of the United States. J Environmental Assessment Policy and Management 16(1):145000.