ANALYSIS
Slowly but mostly steadily dropping unemployment rates are raising hopes for Democrats in Colorado and the nation that the recovering economy will help them win congressional seats in the 2014 midterm elections. That includes Colorado District 6, which may be the nation鈥檚 most hotly contested House race.
Scientific models lend support to a popular notion: Whenever the number of job seekers goes down 鈥� as is currently the overall case despite a slight听uptick in February鈥檚 national numbers from 6.6 to 6.7 percent听鈥� the sitting president鈥檚 party will benefit from this economic sigh of relief in the next election.
Yet a CU News Corps analysis of Colorado鈥檚 unemployment rates and corresponding congressional election results over the last 20 years raises serious doubts about the Democratic premise for success this fall.
On the surface, that听assumption seems more true since the recession in 2008 than听, when听different issues intermittently surpassed the economy as Americans鈥� greatest concerns (see graphic):
- From 1994 to 1998, Americans were most worried about crimes and violence
- In 2000, education concerns briefly took the top spot
- In 2002, in the aftermath of 9/11, terrorism polled as residents鈥� greatest concern
- In 2004 and 2006, fear of war tracked highest
- From 2008 to 2012, the No. 1 concerns then switched to unemployment and the economy in general
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A听showed that 23 percent of Americans still rate unemployment as the 鈥渕ost important鈥� issue facing the country, and 20 percent said it was the 鈥渆conomy in general.鈥� That compares to 19 percent citing a dissatisfaction with government and 15 percent mentioning health care.
And when asked what the most important issue in the state鈥檚 race for the governor鈥檚 mansion will be, 20 percent of Coloradanseither 鈥渏obs鈥� or 鈥渢he economy.鈥�
According to the data CU News Corps reviewed, there is no proof that unemployment and its rate changes predict success or failure in elections in Colorado.
Though voters in all of the state鈥檚 seven congressional districts decide whom they will send to the House of Representatives this fall, three races at most 鈥� districts 3, 6 and 7 鈥� are considered competitive. The latter, District 7, was created only after the 2000 U.S. Census.
Districts 1 and 2 are expected to again safely vote Democratic, while districts 4 and 5 are considered Republican strongholds, even after the announcement that Rep. Cory Gardner (R-Yuma) will challenge Mark Udall for the U.S. Senate and not retain his House seat from District 4. Changes in unemployment rates are unlikely to affect the overall election outcome in any of those four districts.
Things are very different in District 6, though.听Politico鈥檚听Rebecca Elliott called the race between Rep. Mike Coffman and his Democratic contender Andrew Romanoff听
America鈥檚 No. 1 problem
So what role will unemployment rates play in the election outcomes in the three districts in question?
The CU News Corps analysis of numbers obtained from the听and the听听questions the decisive role of unemployment.
Throughout every congressional district in Colorado, unemployment rates peaked twice, once in the early 2000s, and once in the aftermath of the 2008 recession. And as George W. Bush in 2004 and Barack Obama in 2012 were able to win second terms in the White House in the face of negative employment numbers, the changing unemployment rates also didn鈥檛 consistently affect who went on to win Colorado鈥檚 competitive Congressional seats in those years (see slideshow).
Jeffrey Browne
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Instead, the data illustrate that a variety of factors determines each election鈥檚 outcome rather than one sole, extracted factor. Among those indicators are
- Voter turnout
- Incumbency advantages
- Current pressing national issues (such as terrorism in 2002)
- Each district鈥檚 demographic features and
- Unemployment and the state of the economy.
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According to Kenneth Bickers, a political science professor at the 麻豆影院, District 6 went from relatively safe Republican to too close to call for two reasons, neither having to do with economic trends. First, the 2012 Obama campaign鈥檚 push for the Hispanic vote helped Democrat Joe Miklosi push Republican Coffman. And second, routine redistricting after the 2010 U.S. Census narrowed the gap between registered Democrats and Republicans in that district.
Seth Masket, a political science professor at the University of Denver,听that supports the conclusions of the CU News Corps analysis.
Masket found no correlation between either the unemployment rate or its change and a potential seat loss for parties.
But the poll data support experts like economics Nobel laureate Joseph E. Stiglitz, who believe in a strong interdependence between the number of jobless and the sitting president鈥檚 party鈥檚 fate, and even consider it the decisive factor in any outcome.
In his听The New York Times听bestseller听Stiglitz wrote: 鈥淪tandard models in political science show that especially the level of unemployment and its rate of change are the most important determinants of presidential and congressional outcomes.鈥�
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 6.2 percent of Coloradans were still without a job in December 2013 (see graphic). Nationwide, the number was at 6.7 percent at the turn of the year. Both state and national rates were lower than in the preceding month and significantly dropped from November 2012, when Barack Obama won a second term in the White House despite a still shaky economy.
Who profits from economic upturn?
In his听, the president laid out the Democratic policy argument once more.
鈥淭he cold, hard fact is that even in the midst of recovery, too many Americans are working more than ever just to get by 鈥� let alone get ahead. And too many still aren鈥檛 working at all.鈥�
Does he, does his party, have it all wrong, to lay the electoral fate in the hands of a jittery economy?
Yes and no.
Disunity prevails among experts, analysts and candidates from the political and economic spectrum. They can鈥檛 agree on the most important of the variety of factors that will influence the midterm elections.
鈥淪ince the first [economic] stimulus package in 2009, most voters think that neither party has been doing particularly well on economic issues,鈥� said Floyd Ciruli, a Denver-based political analyst.
Leslie Oliver, communication director for Rep. Ed Perlmutter, who is running for his fifth consecutive term in Colorado鈥檚 7th district (see map), on the other side agrees with Stiglitz.
鈥淭he most important issue facing Colorado in general continues to be economic growth,鈥� Oliver wrote in an email. 鈥淭hroughout the election, you will get to hear Democratic and Republican ideas for how to keep the economy growing, bringing down the unemployment rate and providing the educational opportunities to equip our kids for 21st听century jobs.鈥�
Perlmutter鈥檚 Republican adversary this fall, Don Ytterberg, doesn鈥檛 believe that the recovering job market will benefit Democrats.
鈥淯nemployed people don鈥檛 acknowledge the statistic,鈥� he said. 鈥淧eople acknowledge that they are without a job.鈥�
He also called the numeric unemployment rate 鈥渧irtually meaningless.鈥�
鈥淢ore people are leaving the job market. That鈥檚 what is driving the rate down,鈥� Ytterberg said.
Jeffrey Zax is an economics professor at the 麻豆影院. While he suspects unemployment rates 鈥渂oth in the state and the nation to keep improving,鈥� he also agrees with Ytterberg.
鈥淚n the recent recovery, it appears that people are leaving the labor force,鈥� Zax said, noting another trend that artificially lowers unemployment rates. 鈥淲e have seen that in times of recession, people invest more in education. It therefore takes them longer to enter the job market.鈥�
Republicans rely on Obamacare
Kenneth Bickers puts another variable into the equation. The CU political science professor thinks the Affordable Care Act 鈥� Obamacare 鈥� will likely transfer all the way into the midterm elections this fall.
鈥淯nemployment and jobs are always very important,鈥� he said. 鈥淏ut we don鈥檛 always have this other 900-pound gorilla in the room, which is the health care measure.鈥�
Floyd Ciruli expects that this year, maybe even more than usual, the state鈥檚 midterm elections will be a referendum on the presidency. Obama鈥檚 approval ratings continue to plummet: In 2013, on average听only 42.3 percent of Coloradans thought the president听was doing a good job,听a rate considerably lower than the nation鈥檚 46.5 percent average,听.
鈥淭he real issue is: Will Obama and Washington hurt state Democrats?鈥� Ciruli asked.
Just recently,听caused Democrats more headaches. According to the CBO, because of new health care subsidies, the Affordable Care Act might push up to 2.5 million people out of their full-time jobs by 2024.
Bickers, who co-authored听based on unemployment rates and income changes, said two major factors affect the impact of unemployment rates: 鈥淚t is whether people feel that the economy is improving or not, and it鈥檚 also who [the voters] credit or blame for that.鈥�
Click on the map to learn more about the incumbents in Colorado鈥檚 seven congressional districts.
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