Novorossiya is frozen. Last week Oleg Tsarev, leader of the ‘parliament’ that ostensibly united the eastern Ukraine separatist entities, the Donetsk Peoples Republic (DPR) and the Luhansk Peoples Republic (LPR), announced the project was now on hold. The reason Tsarev gave was that Novorossiya was incompatible with the Minsk II Accords, the principles agreed by the ‘Normandy Four’ — French President Francois Hollande, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin – in February to end the crisis in eastern Ukraine. His statement and similar ones by others may signal that rebel leaders have been encouraged to consolidate around territory they now control rather than launching a new offensive to grab more. Time will tell. What it does reveal is belated recognition on the part of separatists and perhaps the Kremlin that Novorossiya as a geopolitical project to break Ukraine has fallen well short of its objective.

Read entire  by By Gerard Toal and John O'Loughlin

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One year since Crimea was annexed by Russia, polling reveals that (with the notable exception of the Tatars) the new order enjoys legitimacy among the population.

Russia’s annexation of Crimea was an illegal act under international law. It is also an act that enjoys the widespread support of the peninsula’s inhabitants, with the important exception of its Crimean Tatar population. It is now a year since the Russian seizure of the peninsula and installation of a pro-Russia local government. The hasty organisation of a referendum (illegal under Ukrainian law) held on 16 March, produced a 96.77% vote in favour of joining Russia. Russia subsequently formally annexed the peninsula on 18 March 2014.

Read entire  by John O'Loughlin and Gerard Toal.

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The downing of Malaysian Airlines (MH) Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine in the summer of 2014 was a horrific crime. Innocent travelers from 10 countries lost their lives, with the Netherlands losing 193 citizens. The Dutch Safety Board is due to present a comprehensive final report on the cause of the downing of MH17 in the summer. Existing circumstantial and physical evidence strongly suggests that MH17 was show down by a BUK M1 (SA 11) anti-aircraft missile fired from rebel-controlled territory in Ukraine.

However, Ukrainian and Russian audiences have been provided with very different stories about who is to blame for MH17. From the outset, the Ukrainian government and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s own television stations, held Russian ‘terrorism’ responsible for the downing.

Read entire  by Gerard Toal and John O'Loughlin.

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John O'Loughlin was interviewed in a Russian - language TV report on a talk he and his colleague, Gerard Toal (a former student of Johno's from Monaghan, now at Virginia Tech) gave at the Kennan Institute Wilson Center in Washington DC February 13, 2015.

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