麻豆影院

An agreement between the Wagner mercenary group and the Russian government averts a civil war for now, but the future is less clear, according to CU 麻豆影院 Russia expert and political science professor

Events in Russia鈥檚 ongoing war with Ukraine took perhaps their most dramatic turn to date late last week.听

On Saturday, members of the 25,000-member Wagner mercenary group鈥攚hich had been fighting on behalf of Russia in Ukraine鈥攖ook over a major Russian military base, shot down several Russian aircraft and launched a short-lived coup that threatened to start a civil war.

The two sides quickly approved a deal brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, the terms of which include Wagner forces agreeing to stand down in exchange for immunity and mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and some of his fighters relocating to nearby Belarus.

Sarah Wilson Sokhey, an associate professor of political science at the 麻豆影院 who has spent more than 20 years traveling to and studying the politics of Russia and the former Soviet Union, has been monitoring the situation in Russia closely for signs of what might come next. She recently spoke to听Have Ya Herd听about what the latest developments could mean for Prigozhin, his mercenary fighters, Russian President Vladimir Putin鈥檚 grip on power and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.听

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Question: Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary army, was once a close ally of President Putin. How surprising is it he and Putin had a major falling out?听

Wilson Sokhey:听It鈥檚 surprising and not surprising, in a way.听

So, it鈥檚 surprising in that most of us had no idea that this was coming with a particular timing of this. The U.S. government is saying that they did have some advance information that this might be about to occur, but I鈥檓 not sure how far in advance they had that information.听

It鈥檚 not surprising that someone like Prigozhin would turn on Putin and would try to take advantage of the situation鈥攖o challenge Putin鈥檚 political power. 鈥� Given that the war has been going badly, and that he (Prigozhin) is not an entirely predictable person, it鈥檚 not shocking that someone like him would do something like this.

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Question: Do you have any thoughts on what happens to Prigozhin, who supposedly is now receiving amnesty?听

Wilson Sokhey:听It probably doesn鈥檛 stop there. There are a lot of different scenarios that could play out. Prigozhin has been offered the opportunity to 鈥渞etire,鈥� in an old kind of Soviet sense, in Belarus, as negotiated by Belarus President Lukashenko.

If he鈥檚 smart, he鈥檒l try to get out of Belarus and go somewhere else, but he doesn鈥檛 have any good options for where else he could go.听

Some people think that Prigozhin could still pose a risk to Putin. He could still possibly have support among the soldiers that he led before. Some people are speculating that there鈥檚 every incentive for Putin or for the FSB (the Russian state security service) to try to kill him while he's in Belarus, or maybe for the Belarusian security forces to be involved in that, because Belarus is a close ally of Russia.听

So, Prigozhin himself is still very much at risk, and the Russian system is still at risk from having someone who has recently engaged in this attempted coup still very close by.

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Question: What happens to Wagner鈥檚 mercenary troops that are in in Russia and are deployed against the Ukrainians?

Wilson Sokhey:听They鈥檝e also been offered amnesty. So, the official line right now is that they鈥檙e not going to be prosecuted for their participation in the coup. They have every incentive as well, however, to try to get out of Russia with whatever options that they have. 鈥�

I wouldn鈥檛 imagine that the Russian government has any incentive to have those particular soldiers go back to Ukraine and fight, but the Russian government also is running out of (soldiers) and is facing a situation which it has to draft more people. It really needs every soldier it can get if it intends to keep waging this war. So, it鈥檚 really unclear.听

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Question: In the past, Putin has been an expert at spinning things鈥攅ven when they didn鈥檛 necessarily go his way. But given this latest development with the attempted coup by Wagner mercenaries, is there a way for Putin to put a good spin on it?

Wilson Sokhey:听He can鈥檛 turn it into a good thing, but Putin is certainly trying his hardest to spin it as a situation in which he was very much in control, that he knew what was happening and that it (the coup attempt) was put down quickly. But it鈥檚 going to be very challenging for him to avoid any consequences from this in the public eye.

On the front page of (the Russian newspaper)听Komsomolskaya听Pravda听is an interview with a political analyst, saying, 鈥淲ell, it doesn鈥檛 appear that Russian elites were involved in this at all 鈥� and it鈥檚 just a limited attempt at a coup.鈥�

But there鈥檚 really not a scenario in which it doesn鈥檛 make the Russian government look grossly incompetent and divided that something like this could happen. And although the Russian people, like all people, are very susceptible to propaganda from the Russian state 鈥� they can also be remarkably savvy. And if this is what they see of how the Russian government is functioning, they know that what they don鈥檛 see has got to be all the worse.听

That doesn鈥檛 mean, however, that Putin will immediately be removed from power as a result. But one possibility is that it鈥檚 the beginning of the end.

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Question: In terms of the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia, can the Ukrainians potentially use this turmoil to their advantage?

Wilson Sokhey:听Absolutely. This is only good for Ukrainians, who are fighting against Russia. It shows that Russia is divided and that the military is falling apart. It provides an opportunity in the short and medium term, and maybe long term as well, for attention to be diverted away from attacks on Ukraine at a time when Ukraine is stepping up its own counteroffensive. 鈥�

Ukrainians were watching this very closely鈥攁nd not only does it boost morale, but the actual ability to fight. So, it鈥檚 very clearly good for Ukraine.

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Question: In terms of the long-term outlook for the war between Russia and Ukraine, do these recent developments with Wagner potentially change the calculus of the war?

Wilson Sokhey:听The calculus changes entirely, really, in that it sends such a powerful signal that the Russian military is doing so badly. But the other critical component of this will be continued, strong support from Western governments and military aid and financial aid to continue fighting the war.

It absolutely changes the calculus of what we think is possible. And it shows that the Russian military is not invincible, which we already knew, but it demonstrates just how bad of a state the Russian military is in.

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Question: What are Western governments to make of the current state of affairs in Russia?

Wilson Sokhey:听Governments are watching these developments very, very closely. (Secretary of State) Anthony Blinken cancelled travel plans because of the potential coup attempt that was happening to make sure they were monitoring the situation closely.听

And I think that what鈥檚 key here, is that Western governments will watch closely for opportunities to assist Ukraine most effectively, because what鈥檚 happening makes Russia look all the more vulnerable. So, what some Western governments didn鈥檛 entirely think was possible before, in defeating Russia in Ukraine 鈥� looks more possible now.听

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Question: Putin has managed to stay in power for about 20 years. Is there anything to suggest he might not be able to survive this politically?

Wilson Sokhey:听Yes, but we really don鈥檛 know when that political demise would come, exactly. There have been people who have pointed out that this is similar to a failed attempted coup that happened in Russia back in 1917, before the Bolshevik Revolution, which was successful.

In the summer of 1917, there is a general who marches on the Tsar and is trying to bring down the monarchy, but fails. But that was the first step in what鈥檚 ultimately going to open up an opportunity for the Bolshevik Revolution to be successful.听

So, one possible scenario is that we see something like that鈥攖hat this attempt was not successful, but it opens the opportunity and creates cracks and weaknesses in the system that lead to regime change, perhaps, or the fall of Putin.听

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Question: If that happens, is there a sense of who Putin鈥檚 replacement might be?

Wilson Sokhey:听One possibility is that it鈥檚 someone from the security services or from the military. And one possibility is that we see it be someone who, like Putin himself when he first came to power, is a relatively unknown name for the everyday person. So, it鈥檚 not someone on our radar right now, but someone who is high up in the ranks.听

But the critical thing to remember is that the person who takes over from Putin may not be better than Putin. It鈥檚 not a quick fix if Putin dies tomorrow or if he鈥檚 deposed from power. With the system that鈥檚 being perpetuated in Russia, and the Russian government right now, it may get worse before it gets better.

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Question: Is there anything else that people should be mindful of now, particularly regarding the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia?

Wilson Sokhey:听I just think it鈥檚 so important to continue to keep Ukraine in the news and to remember that the war is happening. And that it actually could get worse this winter, especially because Russia has attacked infrastructure in Ukraine. 鈥�

That鈥檚 going to be a very challenging situation for Ukraine, and it needs as much support as ever from the West.

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