麻豆影院

CU 麻豆影院 political scientist Sarah Sokhey, who has watched evolution of Putin鈥檚 Russia up close, isn鈥檛 surprised by reports of election meddling and doesn鈥檛 see Russia as predestined to become less democratic

Allegations that President Donald Trump鈥檚 administration has been entangled with Vladimir Putin鈥檚 Russia even before his election continue to surface almost every day.

A small sampling of stories that have made headlines: the resignation of former national security adviser Michael Flynn after it was revealed he had contacts with the Russian ambassador before taking office; revelations that Attorney General Jeff Sessions misled Congress about his own meetings with the ambassador; and news that former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort was paid millions of dollars by a pro-Russian political party in Ukraine.

On March 20, FBI Director James Comey confirmed that the agency is investigating claims of Russian meddling in the election and whether there was any coordination with the Trump team.

What鈥檚 a baffled American to make of it all?

Enter Sarah Sokhey, assistant professor of political science at the 麻豆影院 and an associate fellow听at the听International Center for the Study of Institutions and Development听at the听听in Moscow. Sokhey has visited Russia 13 times since 2002, giving her a front-seat to the evolution of Putin, who has been president or prime minister for more than 16 years.

Though many Americans and Europeans view Putin as a dangerous autocrat, she notes that he polls well among his own citizens.听

鈥淧utin is genuinely popular in Russia, in part because media is not competitive and opposition parties are not doing well, but that鈥檚 not a made-up statistic,鈥� says Sokhey, whose book, 鈥淭he Political Economy of Pension Policy Reversal听in Post-Communist Countries鈥� will be published by Cambridge University Press in September.

She says recent protests against corruption could threaten Putin鈥檚 popularity, 鈥渂ut it remains to be seen if the people will really turn on him. People forget that you can have an authoritarian leader who is genuinely popular.鈥�

Putin became acting president on Jan. 1, 2000, when Russia boasted a competitive, if sometimes chaotic, democratic system, raucous political competition and free media.

Three months later, he was elected in what was widely seen as a free and fair election.

But throughout his rule, Putin has showed an increasingly authoritarian streak, clamping down on political opposition and media. On March 23, former Russian politician Denis Voronenkov was assassinated in Kiev, Ukraine, becoming the latest in a long line of Putin critics to have been killed in recent years.

Sokhey has watched with fascination the unfolding of the controversy about connections between the Trump administration and Putin鈥檚 Russia, including allegations that Russia actively tried to influence the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in favor of Trump via cyber-hacking, leaking emails and using trolls and bots to promulgate memes damaging to Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.

鈥淚t鈥檚 plausible that the Russian government was involved鈥� in attempts to influence the election, Sokhey says. 鈥淚t has a history of similar involvement with government in other countries of the region.鈥�

Anne Applebaum, author of four books about the Soviet Gulag and life behind the Iron Curtain and a London-based columnist for the Washington Post, argues that many of Trump鈥檚 affinities for and connections to Russia were well-established long before he took office.

鈥淭rump doesn鈥檛 have to be a Manchurian candidate who has been hypnotized or recruited by foreign intelligence,鈥� Applebaum wrote. 鈥淚t鈥檚 enough that he has direct and indirect links to a profoundly corrupt and violent foreign dictator, whose policies he admires, whose advisers he shares and whose slogans he uses.鈥�

From her front-row seat, Sokhey can understand why Trump and his key advisor Steve Bannon might see a kindred spirit in Putin. The Russian leader has promoted a narrative that there is a clash of civilizations between the Islamic world and Russia, which has battled Islamic insurgents from Chechnya, while Trump has made no secret of his belief that Muslims pose a clear and present danger to the United States.

鈥淩ussia has been threatened by Islamic terrorism for years. After 9/11, there was some sentiment of, 鈥楽ee, now you know what we are dealing with,鈥欌�� Sokhey says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 us vs. them, these two worlds, and you have to take a strong stance. There is clearly some affinity between (Trump and Putin) on that.鈥�

And despite relentlessly anti-American Russian media, most Russians reserve their animus for the U.S. government rather than individual Americans, she says.

鈥淚 speak Russian with an American accent and when I open my mouth it鈥檚 not hard to figure out where I鈥檓 from,鈥� Sokhey says. 鈥淏ut I don鈥檛 feel like I鈥檓 treated any differently. Their opinions of the U.S. government are worse, but Russians don鈥檛 appear to broaden that to Americans in general.鈥�

Sokhey doubts the increasingly anti-American sentiment is the result of U.S.-led sanctions imposed on Russia following the 2014 takeover of Crimea by pro-Russian nationalists and Russian armed forces. The sanctions have had an impact, but have not significantly altered how Russians live.

鈥淚t wasn鈥檛 causing widespread shortages. Certain luxury foods are harder to get, brie and other fancy cheeses, and the agriculture sector had to start raising more chicken,鈥� she says. 鈥淭he fall in oil prices has been a much bigger strain.鈥�

Mass protests against Putin鈥檚 regime in 2010 and 2012 didn鈥檛 translate into to sustained opposition, and despite large anti-corruption protests in late March, Sokhey believes it鈥檚 鈥渕ore likely than not鈥� that he will be re-elected to another six-year term in 2018. (Current law bars him from seeking a third consecutive term, though he got around that in 2008 by serving four years as prime minister.)听听听

But she doesn鈥檛 believe Russia is necessarily doomed to an authoritarian future.

鈥淢ost people forget that in the 1990s, there was a very competitive system with lots of parties and a much freer media,鈥� Sokhey says. 鈥淪o it鈥檚 not inevitable that Russia goes down a non-democratic path, although things don鈥檛 necessarily look great for democracy right now.鈥�

And she notes that conflict between the United States and Russia is nothing new, no matter what government is in place.

鈥淭he U.S. and Russian governments have often been on opposite sides, even in the post-Communist era,鈥� she says, citing disagreements over wars in the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s. 鈥淚t鈥檚 really not that unusual, but the U.S. and Russian governments have also found points of cooperation at times.鈥�

听