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Dynamical Systems Seminar: Jimi Adams

How Initial Prevalence Moderates Network-Based Smoking Change: Estimating Contextual Effects with Stochastic Actor Oriented Models

Jimi Adams

Department of Health and Behavioral Sciences,ÌýUniversity of Colorado Denver

Date and time:Ìý

Thursday, January 22, 2015 - 2:00pm

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ECCR 257

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This paper uses an empirically-grounded simulation model to examine how initial smoking prevalence moderates the effectiveness of potential interventions designed to change adolescent smoking behavior. The model investigates the differences that result when manipulating peer influence and smoker popularity as intervention levers. It demonstrates how a simulation-based approach allows us to estimate outcomes that arise (1) when intervention effects could plausibly alter peer influence and/or smoker popularity effects, (2) across a sample of schools that match the range of initial conditions of smoking prevalence in US schools. Results show how these different initial conditions combined with the exact same intervention effects can produce substantially different outcomes - e.g., effects that produce smoking declines in some settings can actually increase smoking in others. The paper identifies the form and magnitude of these differences. The model also provides a template to evaluate the potential effects of alternative intervention scenarios.