Stats, Optimization, and Machine Learning Seminar - The Reproducibility Crisis, pt 1
First part of our series on the reproducibility crisis:
Peter Shaffery will present Simmons, Nelson, and Simonsohn's seminal 2011 article "False Positive Psychology" ()
Ìýa quick blog post that treads some similar ground, people may want to look at that ahead of time if they're curious ()
Abstract of Simmons et al:
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In this article, we accomplish two things. First, we show that despite empirical psychologists’ nominal endorsement of a low rate of false-positive findings (≤ .05), flexibility in data collection, analysis, and reporting dramatically increases actual false-positive rates. In many cases, a researcher is more likely to falsely find evidence that an effect exists than to correctly find evidence that it does not. We present computer simulations and a pair of actual experiments that demonstrate how unacceptably easy it is to accumulate (and report) statistically significant evidence for a false hypothesis. Second, we suggest a simple, low-cost, and straightforwardly effective disclosure-based solution to this problem. The solution involves six concrete requirements for authors and four guidelines for reviewers, all of which impose a minimal burden on the publication process